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2021-10-08
Since the second half of 2019, CTP and blade batteries have received extensive attention due to their "module-free" characteristics. They have significant advantages such as high overall energy density, high safety, and cost reduction.
Although the advantages are obvious, for car manufacturers, CTP technology may not be 100% good news. This means that at the battery pack level, the voice of battery factories will regain the upper hand, and the value occupied in the industrial chain will further rise. Judging from the current public information, it is difficult for passenger cars to adopt standardized battery packs for commercial vehicles. CTP technology needs to be deeply customized for the vehicle type. Automobile manufacturers must at least jointly develop with battery manufacturers or directly deliver battery packs to the battery factory.
Because of this factor, there may be scenarios where auto manufacturers have differentiated into three types of options:
1. Some automobile manufacturers completely hand over the battery pack to the battery factory to develop CTP, and no longer lead the development of the battery pack;
2. Some automobile manufacturers will still maintain the existing technical system, maintain the three-layer battery pack structure, and use high-nickel batteries for long-range electric vehicle products, instead of using CTP technical solutions;
3. Some automobile manufacturers further strengthen battery technology strength, further integrate upstream, and may launch their own CTP solutions in the future.
On the other hand, CTP may also have an impact on next-generation battery technology.
The development path of battery technology in 2017-2020 is to gradually increase the nickel ratio of the positive electrode chemical system from 523 to 622 to 811, and to increase the energy density of battery cells to 300Wh/kg. The realization of this development path relies on the rapid improvement of production technology, which is actually faster than expected. But further technical expectations: from high nickel + silicon carbon anode, to solid-state battery, to solid-state battery + lithium anode, and so on. The technological development of this series of battery cell level, whether in theory or product, is slower than expected. Before 2018, the industry's forecast for the commercialization of solid-state batteries was generally between 2020 and 2025; but by 2020, the commercialization of solid-state batteries is expected to have been postponed to after 2025.
The commercialization of next-generation battery technology depends on the maturity of laboratory technology on the one hand; on the other hand, it also faces competition with existing technologies. If solid-state batteries only improve the safety of existing batteries, but have disadvantages in terms of energy density, capacity, charge and discharge, and cost, it will be difficult to compete with mass-produced battery technologies that have already been scaled up. In other words, the next-generation technology needs to be superior to the existing technology in many aspects in order to have the possibility of commercial success. The more mature the existing technologies, the greater the challenges faced by new technologies.
Although CTP and blade batteries are still facing technical and commercial challenges, CTP is undoubtedly worth looking forward to, and it will be destined to become an important chapter in the era of change. Whether it is a better pure electric vehicle product or a more competitive auto manufacturer, it will eventually stand out in the tide.