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2022-06-20
More than 650GW to be connected to the grid! Many U.S. solar projects enter an ice age
According to an analysis by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), nearly 1TW (1,000GW) of renewable energy and 427GW of expected energy storage capacity are in ice age by the end of 2021, and they remain in the grid-connected queue in the United States. At the same time, the team is still growing year by year.
Overall, there is currently more than 930GW of zero-carbon electricity expected to be integrated into the transmission grid. Of this, 676GW of solar was a new record, with 462GW at the end of 2020. Wind power is 247GW. On the other hand, fossil fuels looking to connect to the grid are declining, with gas currently at 75GW and coal at less than 1GW.
Solar and battery storage have been the fastest growing of this group so far, accounting for 85% of new grid-connected capacity in 2021, but some projects have the lowest completion rates, LBNL said. Clean energy groups have been calling for changes to the system to push more solar and energy storage into the grid. In fact, nearly half of the battery storage capacity in the queue is paired with some form of power generation, mostly solar.
However, most of these planned capacity projects never ended up being built, and according to LBNL analysis, from 2000 to 2016, only 23% of projects committed to grid connection and subsequent construction in time. For example, only power system operators ISO-NE and the Texas Electric Reliability Commission have completion rates above 30 percent, and California independent system operators are the worst performers at 13 percent.
LBNL found that the wait time to connect to the grid is also growing. In regions where data are available, the typical time from grid connection application to commercial operation increased from about 2.1 years in 2000-2010 to about 3.7 years in 2011-2021.
In February, a coalition of three clean energy industry associations called for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to make grid-connection reform a top priority to reduce the backlog of projects waiting to be integrated into the national grid. "The backlog of projects waiting to be connected to the grid is one of the biggest barriers to quickly and effectively decarbonizing the grid in the near term," said Sean Gallagher, SEIA's vice president for state and regulatory affairs.
In addition, LBNL said the "percentage completion" of projects seeking to connect to the grid appears to be declining, with wind and solar even lower than other forms of energy. LBNL analyzed grid-connected project data from seven transmission system operators and California Independent System Operators (ISO/RTOs), as well as 35 non-ISO utilities, representing more than 85 percent of total U.S. electricity load.webcam factory
In the US, transmission system operators (ISO, RTO or utility companies) require that projects wishing to be connected to the grid need to carry out a series of impact studies before construction. LBNL said that most projects that applied for grid connection were eventually withdrawn, and completed projects took on average longer to complete the required studies and put them into operation.
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