Lithium ion may hinder the progress of other energy storage technologies

　　Bonvillian said that the dominance of lithium-ion batteries may hinder the entry of longer-term batteries. "Technologies that can improve lithium-ion may be stranded."

　　Locking occurs when the lead design introduces alternatives that can perform the same function. This may be beneficial because it accelerates the innovation process and reduces the cost of dominant technologies, thereby increasing adoption. This is what happens with lithium-ion batteries.

　　A recent report by GTM Research put the share of lithium ion in the US energy storage market to 98.8% in the fourth quarter of 2017, thus making this technology the market leader for the 13th consecutive quarter. In another recent report, GTM predicted that storage system prices will fall at an annual rate of 8% by 2022.

　　lock-in risk

　　On the other hand, technology lock-in will bring some risks.

　　One of the risks is excessive market concentration. According to the report, the more worrying risk is that innovations that may improve the dominant design will get stuck and never fully mature.

　　The author said that lithium-ion batteries are very suitable for transportation applications, but they are not necessarily ideal for power grids. Locking lithium-ion batteries makes it difficult for manufacturers of alternative storage technologies to survive, let alone continue to innovate and scale up. This may prevent the entry of more optimized alternative technologies that may be more durable and have a longer cycle life.

　　David Hart, a senior researcher at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation and one of the authors of the report, told Practical Diving that both signs have appeared. Hart said: "The dominance of lithium-ion batteries has made it difficult for alternative technologies to enter the implementation stage. Global companies are expanding the production scale of lithium-ion batteries. The report points out that the five major lithium-ion battery manufacturers plan to triple their output by 2020.

　　Solar panels also have a similar pattern. Chinese manufacturers have increased the productivity of photovoltaic panels, flooding the market, putting pressure on manufacturers of alternative solar technology, and even forcing them to withdraw from the market.