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2022-04-14
In order to achieve the 1.5°C target, the photovoltaic power generation must reach 5.2TW in 2030!
To meet the Paris climate target of 1.5°C, operational solar PV capacity must reach 5.2TW by the end of the decade, according to a new report released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
The 2022 edition of this IRENA landmark report states that solar PV is not being installed fast enough to reach the capacity needed to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C in 2050, suggesting that installed capacity must increase from around 126GW in 2020 to an annual of 444GW until 2050. IRENA believes that by 2050, the total installed capacity of solar PV must exceed 14TW.
By 2030, Asia, North America and Europe will be the leaders in renewable energy projects, accounting for more than 80% of global installed capacity. In addition, the report expects Asia to add 210 GW of solar PV annually over the decade, accounting for half of the world's installed capacity, led by China and India. By 2030, North America needs to have 90GW of annual installed capacity and Europe needs to reach 55GW.
By 2050, installed renewable energy capacity needs to reach 26.8TW, half of which will come from solar photovoltaics. By then, the global investment in renewable energy will reach 25.9 trillion US dollars, and by the end of this decade, the annual investment will reach 1 trillion US dollars, and solar photovoltaic power generation alone will exceed one-third, reaching about 338 billion US dollars. More than triple the investment in this technology prior to COVID-19.
Asia will be the region requiring the most investment at $10.9 trillion, followed by North America ($4.7 trillion) and Europe ($3.6 trillion).
The report outlines some of the barriers that could slow the development of solar PV projects, such as grid integration and flexibility, a lack of skilled labor and an unfavorable policy framework. By 2030, investments of $648 billion are required to improve the grid and grid flexibility, rising to $775 billion between 2031-2050.
Power purchase agreement prices have fallen over the past few years due to the cost competitiveness of renewables, with IRENA setting the average PPA price for 2022 at $0.04/kWh, almost three times less than the cheapest fossil fuel competitor, coal. one part. Since 2018, there have been several projects in the Middle East with electricity costs below $0.02/kWh. By 2030, solar PV and wind alone will account for 42% of total electricity generation. Currently, that percentage is 10%.
The report does not reflect the fluctuation of raw materials in industries such as lithium batteries and solar photovoltaics. SES Power recognizes the photovoltaic development path mentioned in the report, but in just three months, the terminal price of lithium batteries has risen by an astonishing rate, which means that the cost of energy storage projects will increase significantly, because lithium batteries are used in energy storage projects. The cost is very large. In addition, the demand for lithium batteries and photovoltaic power generation is increasing, but the mining of minerals has been hit hard by the impact of the epidemic. In the foreseeable three years, their prices will not decline, at most showing a sideways trend. sign. Many products of SES Power apply EVE, CATL, BYD square aluminum-shell lithium iron phosphate batteries (single 100Ah-280Ah), special lithium iron phosphate batteries that can work at -40 degrees Celsius, even if we have enough production scale and have worked hard Control the cost of lithium batteries, but still be forced to adjust prices in a short time.