A few days ago, a new research report submitted by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Initiative warned that the energy storage industry may face the risk of prematurely establishing dominant technologies, and may give up or miss out on storage that is more suitable for utility-scale energy storage applications. Can technology.

　　In a recent event sponsored by the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation of the United States, one of the authors of this survey report and former director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Washington Office, William Bonvillian, said, “Technology lock-in will involve certain risks.”

　　When this dominant energy storage design introduces alternatives that can perform the same function, technology lock-in will occur. This may be beneficial because it accelerates the innovation process and reduces the cost of dominant energy storage technologies, thereby expanding adoption. This is what happened in the development of lithium-ion batteries.

　　A recent report by the research organization GTMResearch indicated that in the fourth quarter of 2017, the share of lithium-ion batteries in the US energy storage market was 98.8%, making the technology the market leader for the 13th consecutive quarter. In another recent report, GTM predicted that the price of storage systems will fall at an annual rate of 8% by 2022.

　　The risk of technology lock-in

　　On the other hand, technology lock-in will bring some risks. One of the risks is excessive market concentration. According to the report, the more worrying risk is that technological innovations that may improve energy storage-led design will be in trouble and never fully mature.

　　The author of the report said that lithium-ion batteries are suitable for electric vehicles and electronic products, but they are not necessarily ideal for power grids. The market lock-in of lithium-ion batteries makes it difficult for manufacturers of alternative energy storage technologies to survive in the market, let alone continue to innovate and Scale development. This may prevent the entry of more optimized alternative energy storage technologies that may have longer discharge times and longer cycle life.

　　David Hart is a senior researcher at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation and one of the authors of this survey report. He pointed out that there are already two signs. "The advantages of lithium-ion batteries have made it difficult for alternative energy storage technologies to enter the implementation stage, and global-scale companies are expanding the production of lithium-ion batteries," Hart said. The report shows that the world's top five lithium-ion battery manufacturers plan to triple their output by 2020.

　　Solar cells also have a similar development model. Manufacturers of solar power products have increased the productivity of photovoltaic panels, which has also put pressure on manufacturers of alternative solar technology, and even forced them to withdraw from the market.

　　In April 2017, Suniva and SolarWorld, two American solar product manufacturers, filed a complaint with the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) about such trade practices. In January this year, the committee announced a 30% tariff on foreign photovoltaic panels.

　　Hart said, “There are some problems that have occurred. Our competitors do not act according to the same rules.” This refers to the improvement of lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity in some countries. He said, "The United States is not doing well in this regard, which puts corporate competition at a disadvantage."