China’s new energy vehicle industry has developed rapidly in recent years, and has now become one of the world’s leading industries in China. According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in China in 2017 reached 794,000 and 777,000 respectively, and the cumulative inventory reached 1.8 million, accounting for more than 50% of the global market, ranking it in the world for three consecutive years. First.

　　China’s new energy vehicle industry has developed rapidly in recent years, and has now become one of the world’s leading industries in China. According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in China reached 794,000 and 777,000 in 2017, and the cumulative number of new energy vehicles reached 1.8 million, accounting for more than 50% of the global market, ranking it in the world for three consecutive years. First.

　　1. Industrial policy analysis of new energy industry

　　As an emerging industry, the rapid development of the new energy automobile industry is inseparable from national policy support. In order to accelerate the process of new energy automobile industrialization, the state has successively promulgated a series of relevant policy documents, formulated and implemented subsidy policies, double points policies, etc. The development of the new energy automobile industry has a major impact.

　　Related laws and regulations

　　Since 2012, the main laws and regulations promulgated by the state that have a greater impact on the industry are as follows:

　　Subsidy Policy

　　In order to support the development of the new energy vehicle industry, the central government has arranged special funds to subsidize the production and sales of new energy vehicles. After experiencing incidents such as fraudulent subsidies for new energy vehicles, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions have made substantial adjustments to the subsidy standards for the new energy vehicle industry, and strengthened the energy consumption, driving range, battery performance, and battery performance of new energy vehicles. Security requirements. The current specific subsidy standards are as follows.

　　New energy bus subsidy standard:

　　The technical requirements for new energy buses are: ①The energy consumption per unit load is not more than 0.24Wh/km?kg; ②The driving range of pure electric buses is not less than 200 kilometers; ③The total mass of the battery system accounts for the proportion of the total vehicle mass. Not higher than 20%; ④The energy density of the battery system for non-fast-charging pure electric buses should be higher than 85Wh/kg, the fast-charging rate of fast-charging pure electric buses should be higher than 3C, and the fuel-saving rate of plug-in hybrid buses should be higher. Higher than 40%. Subsidy amount = vehicle charged electricity × unit electricity subsidy standard × adjustment factor (adjustment factor: system energy density / charging rate / fuel saving level).

　　Source: Ministry of Finance, E-Three Board Research Institute

　　New energy passenger vehicle subsidy standard:

　　The technical requirements for new energy passenger vehicles are as follows: ①The maximum speed of pure electric passenger vehicles in 30 minutes is not less than 100km/h; ②The mass energy density of the power battery system of pure electric passenger vehicles is not less than 90Wh/kg. 120Wh/kg will be subsidized at 1.1 times; ③For pure electric passenger car products, according to the vehicle's curb weight (m), the power consumption per 100 kilometers (Y) under working conditions should meet the following requirements: when m≤1000kg, Y≤0.014×m+0.5; when 10001600kg, Y≤0.005×m+13.7; ④The fuel consumption of plug-in hybrid passenger car with a pure electric driving range of less than 80km in the working condition (excluding electric energy conversion Fuel consumption) Compared with the corresponding limit in the current national standard for conventional fuel consumption, the plug-in hybrid passenger car with a pure electric driving range greater than or equal to 80km in the working condition is less than 70%, and its electricity consumption per 100 kilometers in the A state The volume meets the same requirements as pure electric passenger cars.

　　New energy trucks and special vehicles subsidy standards:

　　The technical requirements for new energy trucks and special vehicles are: ①The mass energy density of the power battery system is not less than 90Wh/kg; ②The energy consumption per unit load (Ekg) of pure electric trucks and special transportation vehicles is not more than 0.5Wh/ km·kg, the power consumption per ton per hundred kilometers (according to the test quality) of other pure electric special vehicles shall not exceed 13kWh.

　　In 2017-2020, the subsidy standards for other models other than fuel cell vehicles have declined appropriately. The subsidy standards for 2017-2018 will be reduced by 20% from 2016, and the subsidy standards for 2019-2020 will be reduced by 40% from 2016.

　　In addition, not all manufacturers of new energy vehicles that meet the technical requirements can receive subsidies. In order to obtain subsidies, new energy vehicles must first be equipped with the power battery products of the enterprises listed in the "Automotive Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions"; secondly, new energy vehicles must be included in the "Recommended Models Catalog for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles", and new energy vehicle products should be included You can apply for subsidies only after the "catalog" is sold and promoted.

　　The implementation of the new subsidy policy will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the new energy vehicle industry. The new requirements such as battery energy density and energy consumption coefficient introduced in the new policy make the previous business model that relied on low-cost and low-end models such as mini cars and small cars to be profitable. In order to continue, companies that master core technologies will have an advantage in the competition, and the new energy automobile industry will enter a period of survival of the fittest.

　　Double Points Policy

　　On September 27, 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine jointly announced the "Measures for the Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Car Companies and New Energy Vehicle Credits", which is the so-called "double "Points policy", to implement management of future enterprise fuel consumption points (CAFC) and new energy vehicle points (NEV), and will be implemented on April 1, 2018 (points only in 2018). The implementation of this policy not only requires car companies to continuously reduce the average fuel consumption of traditional fuel vehicles, but also to produce and sell new energy vehicles.

　　The calculation formula of fuel consumption points is (the average fuel consumption of the enterprise meets the standard value-the actual value of the average fuel consumption of the company) x annual production. Enterprises with negative fuel consumption points can purchase fuel consumption points from their associated car companies with positive points or produce more new ones. Energy vehicles, purchase new energy points from other car companies, and use enough new energy points to make up for it.

　　At the same time, in accordance with the requirements of the dual points policy, the proportion of new energy vehicle points for auto companies in 2018, 2019, and 2020 should reach 8%, 10%, and 12%. New energy vehicle scores can be freely traded, but cannot be carried forward.

　　2, the booming new energy vehicle market

　　In 2017, China's new energy vehicle sales volume was 777,000, a year-on-year increase of 53.25%. Among them, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles was 578,000, an increase of 72.02% from 2016; the sales of new energy commercial vehicles was 198,000, an increase of 15.79% from 2016. According to the "Medium and Long-term Development Plan for the Automobile Industry" jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Science and Technology in April 2017, by 2020, China's annual production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million, and by 2025, China's new energy penetration rate will reach More than 20%. In order to achieve the goal of production and sales of 2 million vehicles in 2020, the compound growth rate of production and sales of new energy vehicles in China from 2017 to 2020 will reach 37%.

　　New energy passenger car market

　　Since 2014, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China have continued to increase. The sales in 2017 increased by more than three times compared with the sales in 2015. Although the year-on-year growth rate decreased in 2017, it still remained at a high level of 72%. Taking into account the growth rate of fuel passenger vehicles and the dual-point policy requirements, it is estimated that the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China from 2018 to 2020 will reach 950,000, 1.34 million, and 1.84 million, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 47%. Affected by the subsidy policy of heavy electricity and light mixing, pure electric vehicle sales have gradually become the mainstream of new energy passenger vehicle sales. The proportion of pure electric vehicle sales in the total sales of new energy passenger vehicles has increased from 64% in 2015 to 2017 81%. As power battery technology advances, energy density increases and new energy vehicle market recognition increases, it is expected that the proportion of pure electric vehicles will further increase.

　　From the perspective of sales regions, the regional market concentration of new energy passenger vehicles in 2017 was relatively high. The sales volume of the top ten sales regions accounted for 55.1% of the total sales. Five of the top ten sales regions were restricted cities, namely Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou, the five major purchase-restricted cities accounted for 42% of the total sales of new energy passenger vehicles. Generally speaking, the sales of new energy vehicles are more dependent on purchase-restricted cities. Specific to quarterly sales and individual car companies, the proportion of sales in non-restricted cities in the first quarter of 2017 was 26.6%, and in the second and third quarters were 38.6% and 44.9%, respectively. New energy brands represented by Jiangling, Jianghuai, Zhidou and Chery It has already stepped out of restricted cities, and the market share of non-restricted cities has exceeded 50%. The market acceptance of new energy vehicles in non-restricted cities has gradually increased. In the future, with the launch of market-oriented demand in non-restricted purchase cities, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles will continue to grow steadily.

　　Judging from the sales of domestic new energy car companies, BYD and BAIC New Energy have always maintained an absolute lead in 2017 or the first quarter of 2018. In 2017, the sales of passenger vehicles of the two companies exceeded 100,000. In the first quarter, BYD and BAIC New Energy ranked first and second with sales of 28,499 vehicles and 21,251 vehicles, respectively. It is worth noting that in 2018, domestic new power car companies also began to achieve sales breakthroughs. Xiaopeng Motors achieved sales of 39 vehicles in January, becoming the first Internet car manufacturer to enter the sales list of new energy vehicles. By March, Yundu π1 Intercity Edition, Yundu π1 City Edition, and Yundu π3 under Yundu Motors sold 75, 25, and 15, respectively, and Xiaopeng Motors IDENTYX sold 30.

　　New energy commercial vehicle market

　　New energy commercial vehicles are divided into passenger car and special purpose vehicle markets. New energy buses are mainly used in public areas as buses. New energy special vehicles are divided into sanitation special vehicles, engineering special vehicles, special special vehicles, business special vehicles, transportation special vehicles, military special vehicles and other types. In 2017, the sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles in China was 198,000, a year-on-year increase of 15.79%. Pure electric vehicles account for a relatively large proportion of new energy commercial vehicles, accounting for 80% in 2015 and up to 93% in 2017.

　　In 2017, the domestic sales of new energy buses was 86.67 million, a year-on-year decrease of 24.41%. The reason was that at the end of 2016, the uncertainty of future subsidy policies caused auto companies to overdraft part of their demand at the end of the year. With the implementation of the new subsidy policy and the overdraft effect The weakening disappeared, and the sales volume of new energy buses in the first two months of 2018 was 4,021, a year-on-year increase of 75%. New energy buses are mainly divided into seat buses, school buses, bus buses, and sleepers. In 2017, the sales of each type of bus were 11,410, 1, 75,99, and 24,587, respectively, with the largest proportion of buses accounting for 68%.

　　The development of new energy buses is inseparable from national policy support. Beginning in 2015, the subsidy for the increase in the price of refined oil for public transportation was linked to the number of new energy promotion. At the same time, the operation subsidy was given to the new energy bus. Major cities have introduced new energy bus promotion plans: Beijing strives to launch pure electric buses by 2020. 10,000 units. Shaanxi Province plans to have more than 7,000 new energy buses in the province by 2020, and Hainan Province plans to account for 90% of new energy buses by 2020, etc.; specifically, by 2018, Shaoyang City It is planned to invest 400 new energy buses, Chengde City plans to purchase 100 pure electric buses of various models, Huangshi City plans to purchase 145 pure electric buses, Xiamen strives to put in 800 pure electric buses, etc.; multiple promotion measures jointly promote public transportation The electrification rate of vehicles has increased significantly. In addition to the increase brought about by the promotion of new energy buses in various cities, the replacement of new energy buses in the next few years will also be one of the main growth points of new energy buses.

　　From the perspective of the overall market for new energy buses, in the first 11 months of 2017, the electrification rate of passenger cars was about 34%, and the electrification rate of passenger cars with a relatively high sales volume was lower. As the cost reduction and technological advancement bring about the improvement of passenger car economy, it is expected that the electrification rate of seat passenger cars is also expected to further increase. The long-term incremental space for new energy buses is still relatively large.

　　New Energy Special Vehicle

　　Judging from the three batches of "New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application Recommended Model Catalogue" released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2018, new energy special vehicles accounted for 25~35% of the promotion catalog. Classified by energy type, new energy special vehicles mainly include pure electric special vehicles and fuel cell special vehicles, and pure electric vehicles account for more than 90%. Among pure electric special vehicles, transport vehicles rank first.

　　The development of new energy transport vehicles is closely related to the prosperity of the express delivery industry. As major cities impose restrictions on fuel trucks, number restrictions, and restrictions on entering cities, new energy logistics transport vehicles have gradually become the first choice for urban distribution tools. According to GGII statistics, the domestic production of new energy logistics vehicles was 125,000 in 2017, an increase of 118.8% year-on-year. It is estimated that by 2020, the national production of electric logistics vehicles is expected to reach 206,000, with a market penetration rate of 21.9%.

　　The good development prospects of new energy logistics transport vehicles have attracted many companies to join the market. In May 2017, Cainiao Network released the ACE future green smart logistics vehicle plan, which will form a demand for 1 million new energy logistics vehicles; in October 2017, JD Logistics announced that it will cooperate with many large electric vehicle manufacturers across the country. Test, promote, develop, and introduce thousands of new energy vehicles, and at the same time form a new energy industry alliance, and plan to replace hundreds of thousands of vehicles in the system with new energy vehicles in the next five years. In addition, the "Action Plan for Promoting the Healthy and Stable Development of the Road Freight Industry (2017-2020)" issued by the Ministry of Transport clearly stated that the country will comprehensively promote the electrification of urban freight vehicles. The Opinions encourage the logistics sector to accelerate the promotion of the use of new energy vehicles. In addition to the support of national policies, various local governments have also put forward plans for the electrification of logistics vehicles. According to incomplete statistics, a total of 28 provinces and cities have clarified the operation plans of electric logistics vehicles in 2017. It is expected that the electrification of logistics vehicles will further accelerate.

　　3. New energy vehicle sales and power lithium battery demand forecast

　　The core technologies of new energy vehicles are mainly power batteries, motors and electronic control technology. Among them, the power battery is the most important core component of electric vehicles. Whether the power battery technology can break through is the key to the development of electric vehicles. Lithium batteries are currently the most mature, stable, and widely used battery type among power batteries. After integrating the data of all parties, the Easy Third Board Research Institute made the following predictions for domestic new energy vehicles and power lithium batteries: to achieve the "double points policy" as the goal requirement, the domestic new energy passenger vehicle sales from 2018 to 2020 will be 95 10,000 vehicles, 1.34 million vehicles, and 1.84 million vehicles; and it is estimated that the average single-vehicle charge of pure electric passenger vehicles will increase by an average of 10% per year; the proportion of pure electric passenger vehicles in new energy passenger vehicles will increase by 2% every year and remain at 85 %; the average single-vehicle charge of pure electric buses and special vehicles will increase by 5% per year on average; the average single-vehicle charge of plug-in hybrid passenger cars and buses remains unchanged. It is estimated that the demand for power batteries from 2018 to 2020 will be 56.53GWH, respectively. , 81.15GWH