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2022-03-07
Can the next "Tesla" appear in the electric motorcycle industry?
Does the market need motorcycles? The answer is yes. To a certain extent, the growth path of electric motorcycles may be able to replicate electric vehicles.
In recent years, electric vehicles are gradually eroding the market share of gasoline vehicles. Electric vehicles will account for half of global car sales in 2030, according to auto industry data firm LMC Automotive. Coincidentally, some of the growth potential of electric motorcycles also comes from replacing fuel motorcycles. When governments of various countries begin to formulate market exit plans for traditional fuel vehicles, fuel motorcycles and special vehicles will inevitably face transformation.
(BMW's Definition CE 04 concept electric motorcycle)
SES Power has always been confident in the electric motorcycle market. We have carried out in-depth research and development on lithium batteries for electric motorcycles since 2010. At that time, we used A123 cells to combine 72V20Ah, 60V30Ah and other lithium batteries with Smbus or CAN communication functions. The battery pack can withstand a continuous current of up to 800A and can meet the needs of a 3KW motor. But the market is very real, and the low sales confirm that the true scale of the market has not yet come.
What does motorcycle really mean to consumers? With the development of society and economy, people's perception of motorcycles is no longer "commuting" and "cheap and easy to use". Today, when the consumption power of "Gen Z" rises, motorcycles have become a new way of life. Such changes in lifestyle can often lead to the restructuring of an industry.
According to the report data, affected by the epidemic in 2020, the global motorcycle market will show a strong growth of 6.87% in 2021, and the market size is expected to increase from US$298.58 billion in 2021 to US$485.67 billion in 2028.
At present, it seems that more than 70% of the global two-wheeler market is concentrated in Southeast Asia and China. The two-wheeler market in these regions is in great demand, and the small and medium-displacement models mainly used as commuting tools are favored by the public. The demand for large-displacement motorcycles above 500cc mainly comes from developed regions such as Europe and North America, where motorcycles are regarded as "big toys" with strong entertainment attributes.
Although the motorcycle market presents two very different scenes, consumers' desire for the "big toy" of heavy-duty motorcycles is obvious.
This can be seen from the dazzling transcripts of electric motorcycle sales.
In the context of carbon neutrality, the motorcycle industry is undergoing a silent change, and high-power electric motorcycles have become a new development trend. Under this trend, car companies that have already enjoyed the dividends of new energy electric vehicles have a more sensitive sense of smell.
In fact, there are not a few car companies laying out the electric car track.
Beginning in 2021, Honda, Kawasaki, BMW and Ducati have all gradually stepped into electric motorcycles. At present, Chinese car companies such as Geely, Wuling and Lynk & Co have all announced their entry into the motorcycle industry. Although the above-mentioned Chinese car companies have not yet announced the production models, but in terms of the domestic environment and situation, perhaps electric motorcycles are their best choice.
In essence, the development path of China's low-speed electric two-wheeler manufacturers is very smooth. But at present, the electric two-wheeler manufacturers seem to be well protected, so that they have been pampered for many years, which has led to their failure to make breakthroughs in key technologies so far. The intelligent exploration of various manufacturers starts from the car owner APP, and all mainstream car manufacturers have equipped their products with the car owner APP. According to a survey, the most commonly used features of users are device control (near-end/remote), OTA and fault diagnosis. Users activate the car owner APP based on these two characteristics, but because the content of the car owner APP is lackluster and the operation is complicated, the user's learning cost increases. This leads to a very low usage rate after many users activate the APP.
At this stage, the electric motorcycle industry is still in its infancy, and the industry is looking forward to the existing electric motorcycle brands to be able to run out of the leading companies like Tesla, and to drive the transformation and upgrading of the entire industry through the "catfish effect".
However, it is not easy to become a leading manufacturer of electric motorcycles. In fact, it will be a relatively long process. The breakthrough three-electric technology and intelligence will be the focus of electric motorcycle manufacturers in the competition. But from the current point of view, among the technical difficulties that electric motorcycle manufacturers need to break through, application limitations such as specific scenarios, temperature, and high-endurance battery system technology are the core keys.
Among them, lithium batteries, as the power source of electric motorcycles, must be the focus of engineers' concern.
Experts say that fuel motorcycle consumers are obsessed with speed performance, and advanced power systems are the key to enabling them to choose electric motorcycles.
For a long time, car companies have been plagued by the problem of high battery costs, and the electric motorcycle industry is no exception. Two-wheeled electric vehicles are mainly divided into two-wheeled electric vehicles with lead-acid batteries and two-wheeled electric vehicles with lithium batteries. The cost of batteries ranges from 30% to 50%.
Lead-acid batteries are cheap and stable, but they are polluting and have a short lifespan. In addition to the disadvantages of high price and poor stability, lithium batteries have the advantages of low pollution, high energy density, long life, and support for fast charging. This has prompted governments to actively promote the replacement of lead-acid batteries in the energy storage system and the electric vehicle industry. Of course, the successor is lithium batteries.
For the current high cost of electric vehicle batteries, in addition to technological breakthroughs in the supply chain, downstream OEMs must also participate in the research and development of battery system technology to change the effective control rate and service life of batteries from the application side.
In addition, the digital transformation of electric motorcycles is also the key to the urgent need for innovation by electric motorcycle manufacturers.
With the maturity of basic technologies such as 4G/5G, Internet of Things, distributed operating systems, artificial intelligence, big data, cloud technology, etc., the vehicle intelligence of electric two-wheelers has more options, and the industry has also made many attempts. You can see many products equipped with Internet access capabilities and basic voice interaction capabilities.
At present, the intelligent technology of electric motorcycles is mainly used in safety and experience. From the experience point of view, the main technology currently used is self-balancing assisted driving, but due to the special attributes of motorcycle experience, the assisted driving function that can be applied to cars does not seem to be ideal on two-wheeled electric motorcycles. At present, this technology in a conservative advancement stage.
The ternary lithium battery with high energy volume ratio has more energy than the lithium iron phosphate battery, but the safety is superior to the lithium iron phosphate. SES Power has rich experience in making lithium battery packs for electric motorcycles. If customers use ternary lithium batteries with a higher capacity ratio, we will increase the safety protection of the batteries according to the actual situation. This is not only in terms of electronic architecture, and it needs to be comprehensively approached from the aspects of mechanical mechanism, destructive impact, etc.