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The output may reach 100GWh, and BYD blade batteries will be supplied to Tesla's European factories?

2022-03-01

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  Recently, a research report said that BYD's sales in January this year increased by 125% year-on-year to 95,400 units, higher than the industry's expectation of about 85,000 to 95,000 units. BYD recently announced a comprehensive increase in selling prices starting from February 1, ranging from 1,000 to 7,000 yuan per vehicle, which is expected to offset the negative impact of reduced subsidies and rising battery raw material costs. Management expects battery production to be 90GWh to 100GWh this year, and believes that BYD batteries are likely to be supplied to Tesla's European factories.

  

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  SES Power and BYD have always had a good cooperative relationship. In fact, there have been rumors of BYD supplying Tesla for a long time. In August 2021, it was reported that BYD will supply "blade batteries" to Tesla in the second quarter of 2022, and the current Tesla models equipped with "blade batteries" have entered the C-sample testing stage; Credit Suisse's report matches that. In October of the same year, it was reported that BYD had received a 10GWh order from Tesla. Although BYD did not admit it, the market always tends to think that many things will not be groundless.

  Generally speaking, as a sales terminal, car companies generally do not raise prices easily unless they have to, although BYD said that the pressure brought by the price increase of battery materials is indeed not small. Then, as a car company, Tesla's cost pressure will not be small. If this pressure continues and increases, Tesla will further increase the purchase of lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are cheaper than ternary batteries.

  Tesla CEO Elon Musk previously stated that Tesla will gradually switch to the lithium iron phosphate battery solution in the future. In the future, two-thirds of Tesla's batteries will use lithium iron phosphate, and one-third may use ternary batteries. At present, the Tesla Model 3 standard battery life upgrade and the Model Y standard battery life version launched in July 2021 use CATL lithium iron phosphate batteries. The two parties signed an agreement in February 2020. The latter became Tesla's After the supplier, in June 2021, a supply agreement was signed again, and CATL will supply Tesla with power batteries until 2025.

  Industry analysts said: "Companies such as Tesla and Volkswagen do not allow a single battery supplier to account for more than 50%. Tesla has determined that lithium iron phosphate will account for 2/3 in the future. If CATL is a sole supplier, that is 67% of the share, so it is very natural to find a backup supplier of lithium iron phosphate. As a product with Chinese characteristics, there are not many suppliers that can meet Tesla's requirements, including those that broke out some time ago. EVE Lithium Energy and BYD this time are very likely to enter."

  According to common sense, with Musk's personality, it is impossible for him to let himself be controlled by others, and "putting eggs in the same basket" is undoubtedly very dangerous. Moreover, the blade battery is currently the most well-known iron-lithium battery in the world, and it is difficult for Musk to remain indifferent. Through structural innovation, blade batteries can skip modules when grouped, greatly improve volume utilization, and finally achieve the design goal of loading more cells in the same space.

  Compared with the traditional battery pack, the volume utilization rate of the blade battery has been increased by more than 50%, and its cruising range has been greatly improved. After the innovation of the blade battery, the volume energy density of the battery pack can be close to that of the ternary lithium battery. As a blade battery of lithium iron phosphate system, its cost advantage is also very obvious. Taking BYD Han as an example, with the same cruising range, the blade battery can reduce the cost of the battery pack by 30%, and the gross profit of the bicycle can be increased by 17,000 yuan.

  In fact, Tesla has already tasted the sweetness of the cost of iron-lithium batteries. According to incomplete statistics in the industry, Tesla Model 3 has experienced more than ten rounds of price cuts since it entered the Chinese market, from more than 300,000 yuan at the beginning to less than 250,000 yuan today. Industry analysts pointed out: "The main reason for Tesla's price adjustment is the replacement of lithium iron phosphate batteries after domestic production (its assembled batteries), thanks to this, Tesla's cost has dropped significantly.

  Today's BYD is accelerating the production capacity of blade batteries. How big is BYD's expansion? We can get a glimpse of its purchase of battery materials. In November 2021, it was reported that BYD will purchase lithium hexafluorophosphate products with a total volume of not less than 56,050 tons from DFD before 2025. According to industry estimates, about 125 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate are needed to produce 1GWh of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Then, the 56,050 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate purchased by BYD above are expected to have a corresponding battery capacity of about 448GWh. Prior to this, BYD also purchased a total of 25,630 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate from three companies in July 2021, and the corresponding battery capacity is expected to be about 205GWh. In general, BYD has purchased up to 81,680 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate in the second half of 2021 alone, corresponding to a battery capacity of about 653GWh; this scale is comparable to the current plan of the CATL.

  In 2021, the installed capacity of BYD's power batteries will also grow rapidly. On February 7, SNE Research, a South Korean market research institution, released the 2021 global power battery installed capacity rankings. The top ten are: CATL, LG New Energy, Panasonic, BYD, SK On, Samsung SDI, AVIC Lithium), Gotion Hi-Tech, Envision Power, Honeycomb Energy. BYD achieved an installed capacity of 26.3GWh, a year-on-year increase of 168%, ranking fourth on the list.

  It is not difficult to guess that if BYD really supplies Tesla blade batteries, then with Tesla's sales capacity, BYD's battery installed capacity will explode significantly.

  As a company that has been customizing lithium-ion battery pack products for nearly 20 years, SES Power admires BYD's adherence to the lithium iron phosphate battery line. From the perspective of the development of the lithium battery industry, higher capacity, better safety, and better price are the focus of lithium battery development. BYD's lithium iron phosphate blade battery can perfectly match these three points. It can be seen that BYD's forward-looking and strong R & D team. The square aluminum shell lithium iron phosphate battery is a high-quality choice for future energy storage systems and power systems. This is from SES Power's products: 12V100Ah, 12V200Ah, 24V100Ah, 24V200Ah, 36V100Ah, 48V50Ah, 48V100Ah, etc., using high-performance rate lithium battery A123 12V30Ah, 12V50Ah car starting battery (maximum peak current can reach 1500A), which can be recognized by the market, which is enough to prove the tendency of end customers.

  Many customers are very concerned about cost performance, but SES Power insists that safety performance cannot be reduced to reduce costs. We usually make use of the price advantage of echelon batteries to make SES Power’s customized lithium-ion battery packs based on guaranteed performance. The needs of discerning customers. So that we support BYD's philosophy and products very much.

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