The arrival of 4680 means the end of the lithium iron phosphate boom?

　　From a global perspective, the large-scale use of cylindrical power batteries is Tesla. European car companies such as Daimler, Nissan, Renault, Volkswagen, Hyundai, etc. mainly use soft pack batteries, and Chinese car companies mainly use square batteries.

　　For the new type of battery 4680, the number 46 refers to the diameter of the cylindrical battery 46mm, and 80 refers to the height of the battery 80mm.

　　Compared with the 18650 and 21700 used by Tesla before, the advantages of the 4680 battery are reflected in the battery capacity, production cost and efficiency. The reason for the increase in battery capacity is the increase in size, which is not a special case of the 4680 itself. The previous 21700 battery has 50% more battery capacity than the 18650 battery, and the 4680 is 5 times the battery capacity of the 2170 (not the energy density increase by 5 Times), and the increase in battery capacity will also lead to an increase in cruising range (an increase of 16%).

　　The increase in production efficiency and the reduction in cost (14%) are reflected in the large batteries, which are also used in 75KWh electric vehicles. The old 18650 requires about 7100 batteries, and the 2170 cylinder requires 4400+ batteries. The new battery 4680 only needs 950 cells. A smaller number of monomers means that the space utilization rate of PACK is improved, and the time required for production and assembly is reduced, so the grouping efficiency is greatly improved.

　　However, the battery selection and planning of car companies cannot be changed in a short time, so even if the 4680 battery is successfully launched and the effect is good, other car companies may follow up and try to use cylindrical batteries, but in the short term, the main customers are also concentrated on Tesla.

　　Since the 4680 model has so many advantages, can it completely replace the lithium iron phosphate battery?

　　First of all, Tesla has repeatedly announced that it will gradually adopt lithium iron phosphate batteries in the future, and even proposed that Tesla's standard battery life upgraded version 3 and standard battery life version Model Y will use lithium iron phosphate batteries to replace the previous ones. The ternary lithium battery, so Tesla will not easily give up the lithium iron phosphate battery.

　　Secondly, the reason why the 4680 battery is preconceived that it will completely use the ternary battery is because the 4680 battery replaces the original 21700 and 18650 size ternary batteries. But this does not mean that the 4680 battery cannot use the lithium iron phosphate battery. The 4680 itself is only a battery size, not a unique technology of the ternary lithium battery, just like BYD's blade battery, although it uses lithium iron phosphate. Cathode materials, but it is also possible to use ternary cathode materials. Only because the previous two generations of batteries 21700 and 18650 are both ternary lithium batteries, and they are both provided by the veteran battery manufacturer Panasonic, they are considered to be ternary lithium batteries. However, with excellent battery manufacturers entering the competition of 4680 batteries, it is very possible to produce 4680 batteries of lithium iron phosphate version.

　　As for some market views that high-end cars use high-nickel ternary 4680, and low-end cars use ordinary lithium iron phosphate batteries, we think it is unlikely. Looking at this year, the total sales of Tesla models from January to September were 627,350. Among them, the sales of high-end models Model S and Model X totaled only 13,185 (down -65.3% year-on-year), while sales of Model 3 and Model Y totaled 614,165 (a year-on-year increase of about 2.2 times).

　　It can be seen that Model S and Model X alone cannot support overall sales. Model 3 and Model Y are the real main force. As Tesla’s next-generation main battery, the 4680 battery will undoubtedly be used on a large scale, so It is a good idea to launch the high-nickel ternary version 4680 and the lithium iron phosphate version 4680 respectively.

　　Lithium-ion battery (LIB) has become the main energy storage solution in modern social life. Among them, lithium iron phosphate battery is a perfect replacement for lead-acid batteries, and it is the first choice for grid-connected peak shaving, off-grid energy storage, photovoltaic energy storage, UPS, data center and other industries.