It is estimated that by 2030, the United States and China will add 151.3GW and 436.9GW of solar installed capacity, respectively, accounting for 57% of the world's expected total new solar energy.

However, there are risks in the development of solar energy in these two countries. The United States needs to resolve trade and tariff issues, and China needs to ensure reliable photovoltaic production capacity.

This is a prediction in the latest solar power investment hotspot report released by Fitch Solutions, which also lists Namibia as a "solar power market worth watching this quarter". In the next ten years, Namibia's expected capacity will increase by 203%.

A: The United States is expected to add 151GW in ten years, but barriers still exist

The United States will continue to be the second largest solar market after China, and the share of solar energy in the electricity structure will increase from the current 3.3% to 9% in 2030. According to the report, solar power capacity is expected to increase from 89.9GW at the end of 2020 to 241.2GW in 2030, and solar power generation will reach 398TWh.

The substantial stock of large-scale ground-based power stations and the continued growth of small-scale projects support these development expectations. However, due to the global price increase of the entire value chain of solar energy and the uncertainty of the US solar energy industry’s trade policy, there are still relatively high unfavorable risks in the short term.

The Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA) called for the gradual cancellation of Section 201 tariffs imposed on some crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells in China. Nevertheless, on November 24, the United States International Trade Commission (ITC) still proposed to extend the 201 clause guarantee tariffs on solar cells and modules. After the ITC passed a resolution, the United States cancelled the Section 201 tariff exemption for bifacial solar modules.

Section 201 tariffs will expire in February 2022, after which US President Joe Biden will make the final decision.

B: If the capacity problem is solved, China will take the lead

In the next ten years, China will maintain its position as the largest solar energy market with a "great advantage". The Chinese market will account for 42% of the total global solar energy growth by 2030.

Fitch’s report predicts that China’s installed solar capacity will increase from 253.4GW at the end of 2020 to 690.3GW in 2030. In the latest Nationally Determined Contributions report submitted to the United Nations, China's goal is to achieve 1.2 TW of renewable energy capacity by 2030.

According to the report, solar power generation will reach 771TWh in 2030, and during the same period, the share of solar power in the electricity structure will increase from 3.5% to 7.5%. The report predicts that the "prospect of China's distributed photovoltaic industry will become brighter" and that distributed photovoltaic industry will "promote market growth."

Relevant Chinese authorities have required the installation of solar power systems in residential, commercial and government buildings. The report shows that according to the National Energy Administration's expectations, by the end of 2023, this plan will add 130GW-170GW of solar capacity.

The report pointed out that in the next ten years, China will still be an important supplier of major solar photovoltaic equipment products. However, China's solar energy industry will face the risks of price increases, supply chain interruptions, energy crises and rising raw material costs in the future.

C: Niche market, favorable policy environment in Namibia

Finally, the Fitch Solutions report highlights that Namibia’s solar capacity is expected to increase from 145MW to nearly 440MW. Namibia is a market with huge investment potential for new projects.

The report mentioned a project jointly developed by Globeleq Generation and Natura Energy. The two companies signed a cooperation agreement to build an 81MW TeraSun Energy solar photovoltaic power station in Windhoek.

The report also stated that Namibia is one of the regions with the "largest potential for solar energy development in the world", with an average annual sunshine time of 300 days.

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