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2021-09-15
The PV industry has reached the tipping point of technological change
The theory of solar PVs was put forward in 1839, when French scientist Becquerel discovered the PV effect of liquids. In 1917, Polish scientist Czeklauski invented the CZ technology, which was later improved and developed into the main method for preparing monocrystalline silicon for solar energy. In 1941, Orr discovered the PV effect on silicon. In 1954, American scientists Chapin and Pilsson made practical monocrystalline silicon solar cells for the first time in Bell Labs in the United States.
In fact, in the past 20 years, the transformation of the PV industry has mainly focused on the improvement of manufacturing efficiency. The real technological breakthroughs are only practical inventions of cold hydrogenation technology for polycrystalline silicon and diamond wire cutting technology for monocrystalline silicon wafers. To some extent, the current PV industry does not have the barriers of high-tech industries.
However, 2021 is expected to become a watershed for technological change in the PV industry. Heterojunction cell technology is currently more optimistic. It should be noted that many people consider the size changes of silicon wafers as technological changes, such as the 182 and 210 large-size disputes. In fact, the conclusion of this proposition is questionable.
The larger the silicon wafer size, the higher the overall efficiency. Initially, manufacturers launched G1 square monocrystalline silicon wafers (158.75mm), and then introduced the largest size M6 silicon wafers (166mm) that are compatible with most existing equipment production capacity. Then a large manufacturer released G12 silicon wafer (210mm), maintaining the size dispute at 182 and 210.
In fact, the size of the silicon wafer is ultimately determined by the terminal's demand for components. No matter from a current or historical point of view, the end customer is not concerned about size, but about cost. Although the component 210 can theoretically bring more savings to end customers, because the related industry chain is not yet mature, and the customer's acceptance of this change is relatively slow, and the 182 has smaller changes to the silicon link and is easier to promote. Therefore, 182 products will not be eliminated for at least a few years.
The PV industry is currently in a stalemate, and the annual demand for installed capacity is the key to opening the situation.
If demand meets expectations or exceeds expectations, PV companies will increase investment in research and development and make every effort to reduce costs. If the demand is not up to expectations, downstream components will face suspension and reduction in production, and the desire for research and development will not be strong, which will eventually make the entire industry depressed and lose its glory.
Lithium-ion battery (LIB) has become the main energy storage solution in modern social life. Among them, lithium iron phosphate batteries are a perfect replacement for lead-acid batteries, and they are the first choice for grid-connected peak shaving, off-grid energy storage, PV energy storage, UPS, data center and other industries.
Solar power generation system with lithium battery energy storage system is a very promising clean energy.