I have to admit that in the past 100 years, mankind has made full use of the generous gifts of nature-fossil energy. It is also fossil energy that has ignited the prairie fire from industrial civilization to information civilization with its extraordinary energy density. Fuel trucks relying on the petroleum industry have excellently solved practical problems such as cruising range, comprehensive performance, fuel refueling, and infrastructure. While the technology is becoming more mature and the cost is gradually decreasing, it has also formed a strong path lock.

　　If new energy vehicles want to compete with traditional fuel vehicles and even replace them, I am afraid that they cannot rely solely on the introduction of policies and the transformation of public consciousness. The progress and development of power battery technology is also crucial. From aluminum-air batteries, lithium-sulfur batteries, to hydrogen fuel cells, solid-state lithium batteries, and to the existing conventional lithium batteries, the dispute over various power battery technology routes has always been a hot topic in the industry.

　　We might as well "look up at the stars" and "down-to-earth". Starting from the future, we will conduct a military parade in accordance with core principles of power battery technology that may gain the ability to compete in the Central Plains. See which technology is the future of new energy vehicles?

　　1 Ideal aluminum-air battery car

　　If there are any reducing agents comparable to hydrocarbons in terms of energy density, then everyone will unanimously set their sights on the specific positions of the periodic table-those "small and beautiful" active metals; if there are any large amounts of oxidants, Cheap and easy to get, then air is the best choice for almost everyone. This is the reason why metal-air batteries that have the advantages of both, especially aluminum-air batteries that use the extremely rich aluminum-related raw materials in the earth's crust as the negative electrode, have attracted batch after batch of researchers.

　　First of all, the successful aluminum-air battery can solve the problem of vehicle battery life. The combination of aluminum negative electrode and air positive electrode is the best endorsement of energy density.

　　Secondly, the successful aluminum-air battery can solve the problem of vehicle charging. The "mechanical charging" of the aluminum-air battery that uses the method of replacing the negative electrode is not inferior to the fuel refueling of traditional fuel vehicles, and it is as convenient and fast as the energy block of Iron Man.

　　Once again, the successful aluminum-air battery infrastructure is easy to use and build. The electrolytic aluminum facility near the renewable energy resource center is equipped with a developed freight network, coupled with a "mechanical charging" station comparable to a convenience store, combining the surface inertness of metal aluminum at room temperature and the environmentally friendly and easy recycling of aluminum oxide Characteristic, it can almost build a perfect closed-loop energy transportation network.

　　Even if the overall energy cycle efficiency is not as good as that of lithium battery charging piles and substations, aluminum-air battery vehicles can "dominate" the future of energy and transportation by relying on the advantages of the above three aspects.　　 However, there are considerable technical difficulties in realizing the application of aluminum-air battery technology, such as the corrosion inhibition of aluminum negative electrodes, the research and design of positive oxygen-absorbing catalysts and other multiple problems to be solved. It is no exaggeration to say that researchers who can overcome the above obstacles and realize the transportation application of aluminum-air batteries are definitely worth a heavy Nobel Prize.　　2"Open-hanging" lithium-sulfur battery vehicle

　　Say goodbye to mileage anxiety, don’t want to change battery, just want to charge, the ultimate form of lithium battery, the research hotspot with mixed reputation... The above description all point to the same technology, that is, lithium-sulfur battery technology.

　　makes the battery as good as the fuel tank-the successful lithium-sulfur battery can also solve the problem of battery life, which is also the advantage of the concept when it was born.

　　First of all, the successful lithium-sulfur battery allows vehicles to say goodbye to the trouble of charging. When an electric vehicle has a range of 700 kilometers, it is not only friendly to the grid, but also brings a better user experience to the owner.　　Secondly, the successful lithium-sulfur battery can be used in common with the infrastructure of conventional lithium-ion vehicles, and with its excellent cruising range, the demand for fast charging technology is even lessened. Constructing a scientific and reasonable transmission and distribution network and matching the peak-to-valley price difference and market-based electricity prices can effectively coordinate the charging behavior of vehicles, and relying on a high proportion of renewable energy can greatly increase the market share of electric vehicles.

　　However, like aluminum-air batteries, lithium-sulfur battery technology is also full of uncertainties. Significant changes in the electrode structure, the shuttle effect of polysulfides, and difficult-to-control side reactions are all preventing lithium-sulfur battery technology from entering the market from the laboratory.

　　If the lithium-sulfur battery technology can be verified or falsified by practical applications as soon as possible, it will undoubtedly be a good thing. If not, then we can only hope that someone will "open up" to do this in the future.

　　3 A pioneering fuel cell vehicle

　　Toyota and Honda are two major Japanese car companies, Hyundai and other Korean car companies, and European car companies that are catching up... Based on the high energy density and short refueling time of high-pressure hydrogen, using "electricity-hydrogen-electricity" as the fuel for the energy path The battery car is no different in terms of pulling the wind.

　　The Toyota Mirai fuel cell vehicle has realized the safe operation of the test vehicle for about 100,000 kilometers since its launch. What awaits it will be a challenge with a range of 200,000 kilometers or more. However, if the fuel cell can be equipped with an appropriate amount of lithium battery, this extended-range fuel cell vehicle may be more reliable.　　Under perfect design conditions, the safety of fuel cell vehicles is actually not a problem-hydrogen quickly dissipates upwards in an open environment. Furthermore, what kind of long-range vehicle is not a fuel pack?

　　More worrying issues should be the life of the fuel cell stack, the high cost caused by the dependence on platinum-based catalysts, and the inefficiency of the "electricity-hydrogen-electricity" energy conversion path. Compared with the lithium battery of the same specification, the cost of the fuel cell vehicle is higher, and the primary energy consumption is basically at twice the level of the other party. In addition, hydrogen and liquid hydrogen are not suitable for long-distance transportation and storage, so in theory, fuel cell vehicles will not achieve a large-scale closed-loop energy transportation network like aluminum-air battery vehicles.

　　From renewable energy bases to UHV power transmission, to city-wide on-site hydrogen production or short- and medium-distance hydrogen transportation, it is more reasonable. In addition, the construction of hydrogen refueling stations is almost equivalent to starting anew, with many challenges. Let’s see how long it will take for more than 300 hydrogen refueling stations around the world to increase to 1,000! 　　4 challenged solid-state lithium electric vehicles

　　By replacing the lithium hexafluorophosphate-based electrolyte in the current lithium-ion power battery with a solid electrolyte, the driving range, safety and environmental friendliness of the corresponding vehicle can be further improved. It can be said that the solid-state lithium battery is the ultimate form of the lithium battery using the traditional positive electrode system. In addition to universities and research institutes, many companies in the power battery car industry chain have invested a lot of energy in related technology research and development.

　　At present, the technological maturity of solid-state lithium batteries is higher than that of aluminum-air and lithium-sulfur batteries, but it is still not as good as fuel cells.

　　Compared with the existing lithium battery, the cruising range of the solid-state lithium battery is expected to be greatly improved. Although it may not be better than the traditional fuel vehicle, it can greatly alleviate the mileage anxiety problem. Because of the shortcomings in rate performance, the charging time of solid-state lithium electric vehicles is longer.　　The solution may include the aforementioned power distribution network and pricing mechanism, charging and swapping coordination system, etc., so it will not bring too much additional infrastructure burden (compared to large-scale lithium battery applications). In addition, the common use of power-type conventional lithium batteries and high-energy-density solid-state lithium batteries can also build a "plug-in hybrid" system for lithium electric vehicles.　　 Of course, the impact of the demand for fast charging of power-type lithium batteries on the current power system (when the total scale is large and the charging is disordered) must be taken seriously.

　　In order to realize the popularization and application of solid-state lithium battery technology, problems such as the behavior of the "electrolyte-electrode" solid-state interface, the improvement of rate performance in non-high temperature environments, and the repeatability of the performance of different batches of batteries need to be resolved. It is true that the solution is full of challenges, but challenges also mean better possibilities.

　　5 forward-looking progress lithium battery

　　Starting from the future, we will return to reality little by little.

　　Adjust the positive and negative electrodes of the current lithium-ion battery to the direction of high specific volume such as high nickel ternary materials and silicon-carbon composite materials under the conditions of ensuring safety, optimize battery specifications, gradually establish a battery recycling system, and combine the vehicle platform with With multiple forward-looking factors such as battery-based redesign and lightweight body, and vigorously building a smart infrastructure for power transmission and distribution, we can see that lithium electric vehicles have made considerable progress. Perhaps the current lithium battery still has many problems such as mileage anxiety, but with the continuous improvement of infrastructure, it can comfort the anxiety of car owners to a considerable extent; maybe the current lithium battery will be eliminated and replaced within ten years, but ten years It is also considered to be an acceptable period; perhaps the current lithium battery is still suffering from controversy in resource recovery and environmental protection, but it can at least make it affordable for most people, and use it with peace of mind.

　　On the whole, the industry will face a reshuffle in the next ten years. After the reshuffle, the surviving lithium battery companies will climb to the technological high ground within the scope of vision, let the lithium battery industry mature, and expand the number of new energy vehicles in China and the world to a foreseeable considerable share.　　6 Realistic conventional lithium battery

　　is right in front of him, just today.

　　Lack of exclusive electric vehicle platforms, extreme mileage anxiety in winter, still insufficient infrastructure, endless "fraud compensation" incidents, pain after subsidy decline, echelon utilization and resource recovery research that has yet to be demonstrated... these are all This is the trouble that conventional lithium battery vehicles are facing.　　 It may be the second car of the Xiaokang Family, or it may be a helpless choice for the unsuccessful lottery.

　　It may be the best choice for many large cities to reduce pollution, and it is also burdened with the infamy of "electricity comes from coal" and "transfer pollution."

　　It really bears the promise of emerging industries of "overtaking on corners" and improving environmental conditions. It also has many shortcomings in performance, insufficient cruising range, especially the recycling system has not yet been established, and many other drawbacks.

　　There are too many areas for improvement, but we should always believe that the road is under the foot, and the foot is longer than the road.

　　Conclusion

　　What is waiting for us in the future may be the era of our dreams-aluminum-air battery vehicles and lithium-sulfur battery vehicles can be widely popularized, the application of renewable energy in the transportation system has formed a real closed loop, and fuel vehicles have been completely eliminated; also Perhaps it will be the era when the three major technologies of solid-state lithium battery, fuel cell and hybrid power are contending for hegemony; or, it may be an unfavorable era-the mileage anxiety of lithium battery vehicles is still there, and people complain about high oil prices and the recovery of power batteries. problem……

　　The future depends on our choice, but no matter what, we should not stop in the era of fuel vehicles.